Herman Kahn

Futurist

1922-02-15 – 1983-07-07

Herman Kahn was an American strategist and futurist known for Cold War nuclear strategy analysis at RAND and later at the Hudson Institute. His work on deterrence and scenario planning became highly influential in defense and policy circles. He authored On Thermonuclear War and other forecasts about long-term social and technological change.

Books by Herman Kahn

THE THERMONUCLEAR WAR
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Thinking about the unthinkable
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On escalation
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Quotes by Herman Kahn

I'm against sloppy, emotional thinking.
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Only those who are ideologically opposed to military programs think of the defense budget as the first and best place to get resources for social welfare needs.
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A total nuclear freeze is counterproductive - especially now, when technology is rapidly changing and the Soviets have some important strategic advantages.
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From a scientific perspective there is some indication that a nuclear war could deplete the earth's ozone layer or, less likely, could bring on a new Ice Age - but there is no suggestion that either the created order or mankind would be destroyed in the process.
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There was no race - but to the extent that there was an arms competition, it was almost entirely on the Soviet side, first to catch up and then to surpass the Americans.
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Because of new technologies, new wealth, new conditions of domestic life and of international relations, unprecedented criteria and issues are coming up for national decision.
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Failures of perspective in decision-making can be due to aspects of the social utility paradox, but more often result from simple mistakes caused by inadequate thought.
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Projecting a persuasive image of a desirable and practical future is extremely important to high morale, to dynamism, to consensus, and in general to help the wheels of society turn smoothly.
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The widespread diffusion of nuclear weapons would make many nations able, and in some cases also create the pressure, to aggravate an on-going crisis, or even touch off a war between two other powers for purposes of their own.
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My guess is that nuclear weapons will be used sometime in the next hundred years, but that their use is much more likely to be small and limited than widespread and unconstrained.
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World War I broke out largely because of an arms race, and World War II because of the lack of an arms race.
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